Video spends 2019
Television revenue performance in 2018 was inconsistent across each quarter in the Republic of Ireland. We estimate that the overall market grew by just 1% to €221.3 million. This increase was driven by sponsorship. Spot revenue was down by 2-3%. Retail remains the largest category; however, it experienced a decline of approximately 4% last year.
We forecast that TV spends will contract in the Republic of Ireland in 2019, dropping by 2.9% to €214.9 million. The continued decline in spot expenditure (driven by an increase in VOD spend) is behind the decline. TV remains the medium of choice for brand-building, accounting for 36% of media spend for Ireland’s top twenty advertisers. However, the next few years will be challenging as Facebook and Google continue to increase their share of the video market.
Northern Ireland saw a return to growth in 2018 with a 1.5% increase in spend to £77.3 million (€87.8m). Demand was not as strong as the rest of the UK, which experienced approximately 3% growth; the reason for this was a fall in FMCG spends in NI. As with the Republic of Ireland, the outlook for TV this year is weak. We expect spend to fall by 1% to £76.5 million (€86.9m).
We have re-stated our online video estimates to include €33 million that was previously classified under social media in the Republic of Ireland. Globally, online video spends continue to increase, with annual growth rates of 20%+ predicted each year from 2019-2023. The online video market in the Republic was worth €77.8 million in 2018, representing growth of 29% on 2017. Facebook is a significant driver of this; we estimate that video spend on the Facebook platform grew by 42% to €46.9 million. Broadcast players experienced lower growth as they did not have the impressions available to match demand in the market.
The launch of the new RTE player and the increase in content now available to viewers will deliver additional, much needed premium-player impressions in the market in 2019. We predict online video will increase by 24% in the Republic of Ireland to €96.1 million, with Facebook and YouTube securing as much as two thirds of the additional €18.3 million spend this year.
In Northern Ireland, the restated figures for 2018 are £15.5 million (€17.6m) for online video. As with other markets, YouTube and Facebook are driving the increase in spend with limited inventory available on broadcast players. We anticipate a strong 2019, with growth of 21% to £18.7 million (€21.2m).
2018 was a tough year for cinema in the Republic of Ireland. Overall spend fell by just under 5% to €7.37 million. A decline in the alcohol category was the major factor in the decrease. An increase in audiences, with four new cinema openings planned and a strong direct market this year should see marginal growth of 0.6% to €7.41 million.
In Northern Ireland, there was no real change in the level of activity, with total spend of £1.5 million. We forecast revenue will continue to remain flat at £1.5 million (€1.73m) this year. The delay in the next James Bond movie to Q1 2020 has had an impact on what would have been a better performance this year. The 007 franchise traditionally delivers a significant bounce in audience numbers and revenue.