OUTLOOK 23 - Media Market Forecasts
ADVERTISING INVESTMENT
Revisions to the digital estimates across 2017-2021, in addition to the release of radio expenditure data by Radio Centre Ireland, have resulted in revisions to the overall value of the Republic of Ireland media market for the period. These revisions to previously released figures will continue until we have official numbers released across all media in this market. It remains a key issue that our industry must confront.
Global inflation, which has been far from transitory, coupled with the war in Ukraine, impacted confidence and ultimately lead to pressures on media budgets across the globe and locally in Ireland. Growth levels were significantly lower in 2022.
In 2023, inflationary pressure and the war in Ukraine will again impact the media market. Markets will continue to be short term and volatile as was the case in 2022.
Pressures on household budgets with rental inflation and rising interest rates will see a contraction in disposable income for many Irish households. Uncertain consumer spending and rising costs will have a knock on impact on the marketing budgets available for many advertisers.
TOTAL MEDIA MARKET
The overall market in the Republic of Ireland grew by 3.71% in 2022 to €1,382.2 million. All media registered increases in expenditure excluding print which remained flat year-on-year.
The market has had a good start to 2023, but this was to be expected given the COVID-19 restrictions in early 2022. Core forecasts a 3.8% increase in media expenditure to €1434.7 million. We expect to see small levels of growth across most media this year. Print once again is the exception where we are forecasting a decline of 10.4%.
The key watch-outs are the global economic pressures that could impact the Irish economy, and the potential downturn in the UK which could impact ad spend in Ireland. We estimate approximately 20% of marketing budgets in Ireland, are set in the UK.
Northern Ireland, like in the Republic, recorded lower than originally anticipated spends in 2022. Expenditure grew just 1.6% to £203.7million (€238.9m). Core forecasts a slightly better performance in 2023 with growth of 2.9% to £209.6 million (€245.8m). The key watchout in NI is the continued political impasse and the potential impact this has on Government media spending, a key category in NI.
